Baseline VMT Overview
This section outlines the local transportation dynamics and the methodology used to establish Baseline Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) within the City of Lancaster. The primary goal is to provide insight into the City’s VMT patterns and the process of determining its Baseline VMT, which is crucial for setting VMT thresholds and screening criteria under the SB 743 implementation framework.
Local Transportation Characteristics
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, about 75% of Lancaster’s residents commute outside the City, while approximately two-thirds of those employed within Lancaster live outside its boundaries. About 15,000 Lancaster residents work within the City, representing 25% of the local commuting population. This imbalance between inflow and outflow commuting has a direct impact on the City’s VMT patterns.
The commute data reveals that Lancaster residents generally have longer commutes than those who work in the City. Roughly 60% of residents commute 25 miles or more to reach their jobs, while only 37% of those working in Lancaster have similar travel distances. In addition, 84% of Lancaster workers drive alone, with very few using public transit.
SCAG Travel Model
The Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) travel model is the primary tool for estimating VMT within Lancaster. The model includes baseline (2012) and future (2040) scenarios and serves as a foundation for calculating VMT trends and changes for various land use and transportation projects.
VMT Methodology for Land Use Projects and Transportation Plans
To measure VMT, the City follows the Origin-Destination (OD) methodology, which tracks trips to and from defined geographic areas. Lancaster evaluates total VMT per service population, home-based VMT per capita, and home-based work VMT per employee, all of which rely on the SCAG model’s calculations.
For transportation projects, the SCAG model estimates the net change in VMT, considering factors such as induced travel demand resulting from roadway expansions.
Baseline VMT
The Baseline VMT for Lancaster is derived from the SCAG model’s data for the Antelope Valley Planning Area (AVPA), which encompasses the City of Lancaster and surrounding regions. Three subareas—Urban Core, East, and West—were identified within Lancaster to evaluate VMT more granularly. The Urban Core generally has lower VMT metrics due to its higher density and mixed-use characteristics, which reduce travel distances.
As Lancaster produces less VMT than the broader AVPA, development within the City is considered less impactful on regional travel patterns compared to more remote areas. For this reason, Lancaster uses the AVPA’s VMT as a baseline for assessing new development projects and their VMT impacts.
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